DL 233 · NAP → JFK

took off 10:21 AM CEST · expected to land 1:56 PM ET (scheduled 10:16 AM CEST → 2:27 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NAP

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

NAP (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 233 · NAP → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?