Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8939
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
DL 8939 · PHX → PTK
departs 10:02 AM MT · arrives 4:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PTK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
8%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PTK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PTK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to PTK?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Arrivals into PTK at that hour are usually not late
↓
PTK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.39 in
PTK (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.