Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8959
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
DL 8959 · EWR → SBA
departs 9:37 AM ET · arrives 12:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 1.01 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.