Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 9894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
DL 9894 · MEX → JFK
departs 11:02 AM CST · arrives 5:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
29%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 1.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.