F9 3664 · MCO → BWI

took off 3:45 PM ET · landed 6:05 PM ET (scheduled 3:13 PM ET → 5:42 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BWI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BWI that day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling360 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3664 · MCO → BWI

Odds over time

How late did it get to BWI?