F9 4092 · TPA → BWI

departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.69 in

BWI (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4092 · TPA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?