Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
F9 4685 · PSE → MCO
departs 10:06 AM AT · arrives 1:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/12 16%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PSE that day
↓
10am departures from PSE are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PSE (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.