FI 642 · BWI → KEF

departs 8:41 PM ET · arrives 6:30 AM GMT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at KEF more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KEF?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KEF

↓ Arrivals into KEF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.52 in

KEF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 642 · BWI → KEF

Odds over time

How late will it get to KEF?