G4 1404 · TYS → PHX

took off 6:03 AM ET · expected to land 6:33 AM MT (scheduled 5:56 AM ET → 6:58 AM MT)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from TYS are usually not late

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

PHX (destination) Gusts35 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1404 · TYS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?