G4 57 · FSD → LAS

took off 1:59 PM CT · landed 2:51 PM PT (scheduled 12:43 PM CT → 1:47 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −38 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 57 · FSD → LAS

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAS?