G7 4451 · IAD → BTV

took off 12:03 PM ET · expected to land 1:05 PM ET (scheduled 8:41 AM ET → 10:28 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BTV?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.66 in

BTV (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4451 · IAD → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?