G7 4506 · IAD → PVD

departs 12:35 PM ET · arrives 2:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PVD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PVD that day

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ PVD usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip1.92 in

PVD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4506 · IAD → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?