G7 4587 · IAD → STL

took off 8:51 AM ET · landed 9:27 AM CT (scheduled 8:21 AM ET → 9:37 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.83 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4587 · IAD → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?