KE 86 · JFK → ICN

took off 1:10 AM ET · expected to land 4:00 AM KST (scheduled 12:58 AM ET → 5:25 AM KST)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ICN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ 12am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.93 in

ICN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KE 86 · JFK → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?