LH 442 · FRA → DTW

took off 11:39 AM CEST (scheduled 11:10 AM CEST → 2:07 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FRA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 442 · FRA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?