LH 450 · FRA → LAX

took off 2:31 PM CEST (scheduled 1:50 PM CEST → 5:29 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

FRA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 450 · FRA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?