LH 490 · FRA → SEA

took off 11:19 AM CEST (scheduled 10:45 AM CEST → 12:26 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from FRA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

FRA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 490 · FRA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?