Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Sunday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AVIANCA COSTA RICA · FLIGHT LR 655 LANDED 5:42 AM CST, ~21 MIN EARLY

Sunday, October 11 Today

LR 655 · IAD → GUA

took off 3:46 AM ET · landed 5:42 AM CST (scheduled 3:41 AM ET → 6:10 AM CST)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at GUA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GUA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUA

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.82 in

GUA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LR 655 · IAD → GUA

Odds over time

How late did it get to GUA?