Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
MQ 3528 · MEM → DFW
departs 9:26 AM CT · arrives 11:06 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DFW that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.