Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Yesterday
MQ 3621 · DFW → PHX
departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 11:21 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 35 kt forecast at PHX that day
↑
10am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DFW that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.