Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4116
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
MQ 4116 · DFW → MLI
departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 11:37 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DFW that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLI
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MLI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.