MX 1893 · BTV → BWI

departs 5:26 PM ET · arrives 7:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTV

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1893 · BTV → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?