MX 2505 · SWF → MCO

took off 11:33 AM ET · expected to land 2:11 PM ET (scheduled 10:57 AM ET → 2:09 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at SWF that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SWF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.16 in

MCO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 2505 · SWF → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?