Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 6202
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
MX 6202 · BWI → PVD
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 10:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PVD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.25 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.