OO 3860 · DTW → ELM

departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 5:03 PM ET

Your aircraft is N830SK (CRJ9), coming in as OO 3869 from ELM: landed 2:15 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELM?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ELM that day

↑ 3pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at DTW that day

↓ ELM usually runs smoothly

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.17 in

ELM (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3860 · DTW → ELM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELM?