Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4059
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
OO 4059 · GRB → DTW
departs 11:07 AM CT · arrives 1:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/11
Today 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave GRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DTW that day
↑
DTW is busy at that time
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRB
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GRB (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.