Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Yesterday
OO 4812 · SGU → PHX
departs 12:10 PM MT · arrives 12:28 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SGU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SGU that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
Weather at each end
SGU (origin)
Gusts 35 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.31 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.