Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5022 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 1:33 PM ET (21 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Sunday, October 11 Today

OO 5022 · IAD → JST

departs 12:45 PM ET · arrives 1:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at JST more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JST?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at JST that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ JST usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.82 in

JST (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip2.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5022 · IAD → JST

Odds over time

How late will it get to JST?