OO 5500 · ROA → ORD

took off 7:10 AM ET · expected to land 7:29 AM CT (scheduled 6:40 AM ET → 7:53 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 3.3 in of rain forecast at ROA that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ROA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip4.02 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5500 · ROA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?