Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ASIANA · FLIGHT OZ 212 IN THE AIR (OFF 9:14 PM KST, SEEN BY ADS-B, ETA 2:23 PM PT)

Sunday, October 11 Yesterday

OZ 212 · ICN → SFO

took off 9:14 PM KST · expected to land 2:23 PM PT (scheduled 9:00 PM KST → 2:54 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICN

Weather at each end

ICN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OZ 212 · ICN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?