Schedule: FAA flight plans.

PORTER · FLIGHT PD 585 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Sunday, October 11 Today

PD 585 · YYZ → MCO

took off 7:29 AM EDT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:00 AM EDT → 9:58 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ 7am departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PD 585 · YYZ → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?