Schedule: FAA flight plans.

PORTER · FLIGHT PD 606 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Sunday, October 11 Yesterday

PD 606 · LGA → YYZ

took off 6:26 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:19 PM ET → 7:54 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into YYZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling780 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.44 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PD 606 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?