QK 726 · IAD → YUL

took off 4:08 PM ET · landed 5:17 PM EDT (scheduled 3:45 PM ET → 5:36 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YUL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Arrivals into YUL at that hour are usually not late

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip2.34 in

YUL (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 726 · IAD → YUL

Odds over time

How late did it get to YUL?