QR 8151 · ORD → AMS

took off 11:57 PM CT · expected to land 2:05 PM CEST (scheduled 12:01 AM CT → 2:41 PM CEST)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AMS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ 12am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QR 8151 · ORD → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?