Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ROYAL JORDANIAN · FLIGHT RJ 281 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11

RJ 281 · AMM → IAD

departs 1:41 AM +03 · arrives 6:58 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMM

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AMM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.73 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RJ 281 · AMM → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?