RV 1675 · MCO → YYZ

took off 12:36 PM ET · landed 2:40 PM EDT (scheduled 12:02 PM ET → 2:45 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YYZ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.05 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1675 · MCO → YYZ

Odds over time

How late did it get to YYZ?