Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SAS · FLIGHT SK 923 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Today

SK 923 · OSL → JFK

departs 1:20 PM CEST · arrives 4:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OSL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OSL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.98 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SK 923 · OSL → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?