Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 569 LANDED 9:29 AM CST, ~8 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 11 Today

TA 569 · JFK → SAL

took off 6:54 AM ET · landed 9:29 AM CST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SAL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SAL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SAL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.98 in

SAL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 569 · JFK → SAL

Odds over time