Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 580 LANDED 3:56 AM ET, ~207 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 11 Yesterday

TA 580 · SAL → IAD

took off · landed 3:56 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 19h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SAL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip2.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 580 · SAL → IAD

Odds over time