Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 583 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Today

TA 583 · IAD → SAL

departs 5:41 PM ET · arrives 8:11 PM CST

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SAL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SAL that day

↓ Arrivals into SAL at that hour are usually not late

↓ SAL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.82 in

SAL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 583 · IAD → SAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAL?