UA 1523 · SEA → IAD

took off 8:45 AM PT · expected to land 4:06 PM ET (scheduled 8:19 AM PT → 4:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

1% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1523 · SEA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?