UA 3881 · HNL → LAX

took off 6:02 AM HT · expected to land 2:12 PM PT (scheduled 6:05 AM HT → 2:53 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3881 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?