Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3892 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Tomorrow

UA 3892 · ANU → IAH

departs 11:49 AM AST · arrives 4:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANU

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ANU (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3892 · ANU → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?