UA 3904 · IAD → EWR

left the gate 7:48 AM ET · taxiing (scheduled 6:31 AM ET → 8:02 AM ET)

Your aircraft is N57852 (B753).

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.82 in

EWR (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3904 · IAD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?