UA 591 · SBN → IAD

departs 10:16 AM ET · arrives 12:03 PM ET

Your aircraft is N21723 (B737), coming in as UA 799 from IAD: landed 8:08 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from SBN are often late

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip1.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 591 · SBN → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?