Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 804 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:47 PM JST, SEEN BY ADS-B, ETA 3:28 PM ET)

Sunday, October 11 Yesterday

UA 804 · HND → IAD

took off 4:47 PM JST · expected to land 3:28 PM ET (scheduled 3:44 PM JST → 4:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HND

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HND (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 804 · HND → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?