Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 821 IN THE AIR (OFF 10:01 PM HKT, SEEN BY ADS-B, ETA 7:05 PM PT)

Sunday, October 11 Yesterday

UA 821 · HKG → LAX

took off 10:01 PM HKT · expected to land 7:05 PM PT (scheduled 9:55 PM HKT → 8:27 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

HKG (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LAX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 821 · HKG → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?