UA 878 · HKG → SFO

departs 10:29 PM HKT · arrives 7:19 PM PT

Your aircraft is N2749U (B77W), coming in as UA 869 from SFO: landed 6:36 PM HKT.

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG

Weather at each end

HKG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 878 · HKG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?