UA 946 · IAD → AMS

departs 5:47 PM ET · arrives 7:47 AM CEST

Your aircraft is N644UA (B763), coming in as UA 947 from AMS: landed 2:38 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.28 in

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 946 · IAD → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?