VS 109 · MAN → ATL

took off 11:35 AM BST (scheduled 11:15 AM BST → 5:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at ATL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAN

↓ VS's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MAN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

VS 109 · MAN → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?